The arrival of Christian Ilzer as manager temporarily eased the pressure on Hoffenheim, but they now face Freiburg with an unenviable streak of three consecutive defeats. Meanwhile, Freiburg recently suffered a shock elimination from the DFB-Pokal against third-tier Arminia Bielefeld (1:3). Both sides will be eager to bounce back this weekend.
In their debut match under the new coach, Hoffenheim shone in attack with a thrilling victory over RB Leipzig, ending with a dramatic finish (4:3 and 2.14 xG). Last Sunday, however, they were unlucky from the start, and after conceding two early goals to Mainz, their opponents locked down (0:2). In terms of expected goals, Hoffenheim are mid-table (16.43), while only Holstein Kiel (26.50) and VfL Bochum (31.44) have worse xGA figures than their 25.45.
Freiburg’s elimination from the DFB-Pokal to a clear underdog further highlighted their away woes. They have secured just one win in five away fixtures since the October international break. Perhaps now they will shift focus to the Bundesliga, where they convincingly defeated Borussia Mönchengladbach (3:1), creating 1.61 xG with the Michael Gregoritsch–Lucas Höler partnership.
Since January 2021, Hoffenheim and Freiburg have faced each other nine times, with the "both teams to score" bet winning in eight of those encounters. The teams open up against each other, and this narrative is likely to repeat on Sunday.
